Center for Macroeconomic Research of Xiamen University's China’s Macroeconomic Outlook : Quarterly Forecast and PDF

Center for Macroeconomic Research of Xiamen University's China’s Macroeconomic Outlook : Quarterly Forecast and PDF

By Center for Macroeconomic Research of Xiamen University (auth.)

This booklet is a quarterly forecast and research record at the chinese language economic system. it truly is released two times a 12 months and provides ongoing effects from the “China Quarterly Macroeconomic version (CQMM),” a study undertaking on the heart for Macroeconomic examine (CMR) at Xiamen college. in keeping with the CQMM version, the examine workforce forecast significant macroeconomic signs for the subsequent eight quarters, together with the speed of GDP development, the CPI, fixed-asset funding, resident intake and overseas exchange. while it makes a speciality of simulation of present macroeconomic rules in China. as well as aiding readers comprehend China’s financial development and coverage consultant, this ebook has 3 major ambitions: to assist readers comprehend China’s financial functionality; to forecast the most macroeconomic symptoms for the subsequent eight quarters; and to simulate the effectiveness of macroeconomic policies.

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Extra resources for China’s Macroeconomic Outlook : Quarterly Forecast and Analysis Report, February 2016

Example text

91 % in 2017. 37 % in 2017. 85 % in 2017. 39 The Growth Rate of Consumption In the short term, the growth rate of residential real income is unlikely to increase significantly. Therefore, residential consumption will continue to maintain its current slow growth over the next 2 years. 3 percentage points over the previous year. 32 % in 2017, staying generally stable. 48 % in 2017. 74 % in the third quarter, the lowest level of the year. 59 % in the fourth quarter. 14 % in the fourth quarter under the base effect of the same period last year.

91 % in 2017. 37 % in 2017. 85 % in 2017. 39 The Growth Rate of Consumption In the short term, the growth rate of residential real income is unlikely to increase significantly. Therefore, residential consumption will continue to maintain its current slow growth over the next 2 years. 3 percentage points over the previous year. 32 % in 2017, staying generally stable. 48 % in 2017. 74 % in the third quarter, the lowest level of the year. 59 % in the fourth quarter. 14 % in the fourth quarter under the base effect of the same period last year.

The proportion of the tertiary industry out of GDP was over half, but, compared with the average level (55 %) of other countries with similar GDP per capita, it was still lower, with enormous room for development. More importantly, the tertiary industry mainly consists of traditional service industries with low labor productivity, while the modern service industry is seriously lagging due to the removal of government regulations and the promotion of marketization. As a result, the productivity and economy growth rate of the tertiary industry, as well as the national economy, were pulled down, and growth in personal income was restrained, as was consumption demand.

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