Download e-book for iPad: Bayesian Decision Analysis: Principles and Practice by Jim Q. Smith

Download e-book for iPad: Bayesian Decision Analysis: Principles and Practice by Jim Q. Smith

By Jim Q. Smith

Bayesian determination research helps principled determination making in complicated domain names. This textbook takes the reader from a proper research of straightforward determination difficulties to a cautious research of the occasionally very advanced and knowledge wealthy buildings faced through practitioners. The booklet includes easy fabric on subjective chance conception and multi-attribute software idea, occasion and choice timber, Bayesian networks, impression diagrams and causal Bayesian networks. the writer demonstrates whilst and the way the idea may be effectively utilized to a given selection challenge, how information could be sampled and specialist decisions elicited to help this research, and while and the way a good Bayesian choice research might be carried out. Evolving from a third-year undergraduate direction taught by way of the writer over decades, the entire fabric during this publication might be available to a scholar who has accomplished introductory classes in likelihood and mathematical records.

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85 × 103 This is over 850 times larger than the probability quoted by the expert. 2 The second error: the prosecutor fallacy From the rules of probability we know that, in general, P(G|E, B) = P(E, B|G). To obtain P(G|E, B) the juror must apply the Bayes rule formula: something very difficult to do in her head. e. “the probability this SIDS event will happen to an innocent parent suspect”). However an expert witness who presents the probability P(E, B|G) as if it is P(G|E, B) is either statistically incompetent or consciously trying to mislead the jury.

5. In the face of this evidence, the suspect should therefore not be seen as guilty beyond reasonable doubt. Although the value of P(G|B, E) might vary between jurors, most rational people substituting different inputs into the odds ratio formula should convince themselves that, on the basis simply of the deaths, any conviction would be unsafe. This activity of investigating the effect of different plausible values of inputs into a Bayesian analysis is sometimes called a sensitivity analysis. The example provides us with a scenario where a DM legitimately adopts some of the conditional probabilities she needs for her inference from an expert: here the forensic 24 Introduction statistician, in a way likely to be acceptable to any auditor.

On the basis of this pilot they could then decide whether or not to market the product. Note that our tree has already expanded into a decision tree below. The decision situations in this embellishment of the problem are vertices v4 , v5 , v6 , v7 : the decision whether not to market M , market M or test the market T given the four different results from the lab together with decisions of whether or not to market after the test gave a good positive outcome + or a poor one −. In this example we may well need to go further: for example including the types of customer that might be exposed and so on.

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